The National Hurricane Center increased its odds that a tropical system could develop near Florida late this week or early next week as forecasters expect a wet July 4 weekend for South Florida.

Repeated rounds of stormy weather loitering off the Southeast coast could do more than just dampen fireworks celebrations in Florida this weekend – there’s a good chance it becomes hurricane season’s next named storm.

While water temperatures are warm enough in the Gulf to support tropical development, Saharan dust and wind shear could keep tropics quiet .. sort of.