Typically, November tropical systems that develop in the western Caribbean move north or northeast, but a large area of high pressure over the U.S. could affect where it could go and those path range from moving into Mexico to being kicked into the open Atlantic and away from the U.S.

Once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, it’ll run into wind shear, drier air and slightly cooler waters, allowing it to further weaken as it approaches Louisiana by Saturday. This will be a low impact storm for our area.

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to weaken as the NHC tracks another system in the Caribbean that is expected to move into "unfavorable conditions."

The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Rafael remains disorganized in the Gulf of Mexico and should continue to weaken, but forecasters are also keeping their eyes on a tropical disturbance that popped up in the Atlantic Ocean.

Rafael weakened on Saturday and is expected to remain a tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico from Sunday into Monday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced. On Saturday morning, the agency said the storm was about 290 miles of Progreso,

Tropical Storm Rafael strengthened to near hurricane intensity Tuesday night, as it barreled toward the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where it was forecast to hit as a hurricane. The storm was located 25 miles (45 kilometers) southeast of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday after passing by Jamaica,

A disturbance in the Caribbean strengthened Monday afternoon into Tropical Storm Rafael, which is forecast to become a hurricane Tuesday.