Typically, November tropical systems that develop in the western Caribbean move north or northeast, but a large area of high pressure over the U.S. could affect where it could go and those path range from moving into Mexico to being kicked into the open Atlantic and away from the U.S.

Once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, it’ll run into wind shear, drier air and slightly cooler waters, allowing it to further weaken as it approaches Louisiana by Saturday. This will be a low impact storm for our area.

Even without a landfall in Florida, the state is expected to feel some impacts from Rafael, starting as early as today.